Time to be positive again ...

... why leaders need to find a way to change before the market does

In my work with clients I have often observed this phenomenon I call the "mood lag" in business. I would define "mood lag" as the amount of time that a leader takes to adjust his / her mood to reflect the mood of the market.

Look around you. The real global downturn started around March 2007. For CEOs around the world to take off their rose tinted glasses and stop saying things like "this will pass quickly and we'll be alright next quarter" ... it has taken about 7 months.

The mood lag in Asia is even more pronounced. Asian CEOs are still in denial and will probably take another 2 months to change their own personal mood about the future. What this translates into is irrational decisions about investments, costs and restructuring. It puts people and companies in danger and makes recessions deeper and more painful for everyone.

Here's the clincher. The mood lag works both ways. Once business leaders actually switch to the doom and gloom mood that they should have activated 7 months ago, they continue to cruise in negativity well into the first couple of quarters of recovery.

Unfortuantely, by then, the best seats in the new world have been taken by competitors. Leaders struggle to work on their own positivity, and more importantly, struggle and fail to get their people to think positively about the future.

In fact, the best leaders operate in "mood lead" not "mood lag". By sensing what the future holds round the corner, the best in the world are able to bring to bear a personal conviction that pre-empts changes in the marketplace by 1 or 2 quarters. Using this, they are able to move their organizations towards stronger market positions by acting before everyone else.

As markets hit a series of 'bottoms' around the world, there is an increasing sense that a second half (of 2009) global stabilization is on the cards. Ideally, if you are leading a business, your mood should be moving from negative to positive just about now. That way you will have 2 quarters to rally the troops, think recovery strategies and invest in new growth pathways when the recovery gets underway in 6 months time.

The challenge for leaders is that their mood needs to change at a time when the night is darkest.

If you are not turning positive now, watch out ... you are possibly heading for another bout of "mood lag".